VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LIQUID AND THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR WITHIN THE PLYMOUTH, NH, REGION
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Authors
Morin, David
Date
2024-05
Type
Thesis
Language
en
Keywords
Alternative Title
Abstract
ABSTRACT
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LIQUID AND THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR
WITHIN THE PLYMOUTH, NH, REGION
by
David E. S. Morin
Plymouth State University, May, 2024
This thesis aimed to answer the question, “Can a storm’s cell based vertically
integrated liquid (VIL) value at a certain location in relation to Plymouth, NH, act as a
predictor of its behavior as it approaches town?” Previous work tried to connect storm
cell behavior in the Plymouth region to stability indices, the height of the lifted
condensation level (LCL), and the synoptic setup. VIL was chosen as the stratification
variable for this thesis because of its connection with storm intensity and precipitation,
leading to increased downdraft strength, which has been connected to the storm-splitting
process in some studies. The goal of this thesis was to determine if an approaching
storm’s VIL value can predict 1) whether or not it will hit Plymouth, 2) its behavior
before reaching Plymouth, and 3) if it does hit, its behavior after Plymouth.
Cells moving towards Plymouth within the 48 km radius domain were tracked.
Their cell based VILs were recorded at each range ring within the domain, and the values
were separated and compared (bulk statistics and box plots) for each region around
Plymouth based on their behaviors. Based on the results of the majority of regions, higher
VIL cells were more likely to hit Plymouth, while lower VIL cells generally had opposite
results. In terms of behavior, higher VIL cells were most likely to split. Lower VIL cells
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were most likely to dissipate, and medium VIL cells were most likely not to change
behavior. Two case studies were examined to show the inconsistencies between the Storm
Structure Product (SSP) (used for identifying cells and obtaining VIL) and manual
interpretation of reflectivity.